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Robdhs

15 Jun 2025 - 03:30 pm

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15 Jun 2025 - 12:21 pm

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Anonymous

Michaelglync

15 Jun 2025 - 11:02 am

There’s a ‘ghost hurricane’ in the forecast. It could help predict a real one
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A scary-looking weather forecast showing a hurricane hitting the Gulf Coast in the second half of June swirled around social media this week—but don’t panic.

It’s the season’s first “ghost hurricane.”

Similar hype plays out every hurricane season, especially at the beginning: A cherry-picked, worst-case-scenario model run goes viral, but more often than not, will never come to fruition.

Unofficially dubbed “ghost storms” or “ghost hurricanes,” these tropical systems regularly appear in weather models — computer simulations that help meteorologists forecast future conditions — but never seem to manifest in real life.

The model responsible this week was the Global Forecast System, also known as the GFS or American model, run by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. It’s one of many used by forecasters around the world.

All models have known biases or “quirks” where they tend to overpredict or underpredict certain things. The GFS is known to overpredict tropical storms and hurricanes in longer-term forecasts that look more than a week into the future, which leads to these false alarms. The GFS isn’t alone in this — all models struggle to accurately predict tropical activity that far in advance — but it is notorious for doing so.

For example, the GFS could spit out a prediction for a US hurricane landfall about 10 days from now, only to have that chance completely disappear as the forecast date draws closer. This can occur at any time of the year, but is most frequent during hurricane season — June through November.

It’s exactly what’s been happening over the past week as forecasters keep an eye out for the first storm of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season.
Why so many ghosts?
No weather forecast model is designed in the exact same way as another, and that’s why each can generate different results with similar data.

The reason the GFS has more false alarms when looking more than a week out than similar models – like Europe’s ECMWF, Canada’s CMC or the United Kingdom’s UKM – is because that’s exactly what it’s programmed to do, according to Alicia Bentley, the global verification project lead of NOAA’s Environmental Modeling Center.

The GFS was built with a “weak parameterized cumulus convection scheme,” according to Bentley. In plain language, that means when the GFS thinks there could be thunderstorms developing in an area where tropical systems are possible – over the oceans – it’s more likely to jump to the conclusion that something tropical will develop than to ignore it.

Other models aren’t built to be quite as sensitive to this phenomenon, and so they don’t show a tropical system until they’re more confident the right conditions are in place, which usually happens when the forecast gets closer in time.

The western Caribbean Sea is one of the GFS’ favorite places to predict a ghost storm. That’s because of the Central American gyre: a large, disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms that rotates over the region and its surrounding water.

Anonymous

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15 Jun 2025 - 09:53 am

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Oppositionspolitiker – insbesondere aus der AfD – kritisierten eine massive Unterfinanzierung, Personalmangel und lange Wartezeiten. Sie fordern hohere Investitionen, eine Ruckfuhrung von Kliniken in kommunale Tragerschaft sowie einen deutlichen Burokratieabbau. Viele Burgerinnen und Burger mussten bereits monatelang auf einen Facharzttermin warten, wahrend die Krankenkassenbeitrage stetig steigen.
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Mehr zum Thema – "Vollig losgelost" – GroKo degradiert Lauterbach in den Ausschuss fur Raumfahrt

Durch die Sperrung von RT zielt die EU darauf ab, eine kritische, nicht prowestliche Informationsquelle zum Schweigen zu bringen. Und dies nicht nur hinsichtlich des Ukraine-Kriegs. Der Zugang zu unserer Website wurde erschwert, mehrere Soziale Medien haben unsere Accounts blockiert. Es liegt nun an uns allen, ob in Deutschland und der EU auch weiterhin ein Journalismus jenseits der Mainstream-Narrative betrieben werden kann. Wenn Euch unsere Artikel gefallen, teilt sie gern uberall, wo Ihr aktiv seid. Das ist moglich, denn die EU hat weder unsere Arbeit noch das Lesen und Teilen unserer Artikel verboten. Anmerkung: Allerdings hat Osterreich mit der Anderung des "Audiovisuellen Mediendienst-Gesetzes" am 13. April diesbezuglich eine Anderung eingefuhrt, die moglicherweise auch Privatpersonen betrifft. Deswegen bitten wir Euch bis zur Klarung des Sachverhalts, in Osterreich unsere Beitrage vorerst nicht in den Sozialen Medien zu teilen.
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15 Jun 2025 - 09:45 am

London
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Three people have lived in the deserted cathedral in the past two years, with each occupant — an electrician, a sound engineer and a journalist — paying a monthly fee to live in the priest’s quarters.
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The cathedral is managed by Live-in Guardians, a company finding occupants for disused properties, including schools, libraries and pubs, across Britain. The residents — so-called property guardians — pay a fixed monthly “license fee,” which is usually much lower than the typical rent in the same area.
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Applications to become guardians are going “through the roof,” with more people in their late thirties and forties signing on than in the past, said Arthur Duke, the founder and managing director of Live-in Guardians.
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“That’s been brought about by the cost-of-living crisis,” he said. “People are looking for cheaper ways to live.”



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15 Jun 2025 - 09:34 am

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Michaelfruri

15 Jun 2025 - 09:28 am

London
CNN

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Three people have lived in the deserted cathedral in the past two years, with each occupant — an electrician, a sound engineer and a journalist — paying a monthly fee to live in the priest’s quarters.
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The cathedral is managed by Live-in Guardians, a company finding occupants for disused properties, including schools, libraries and pubs, across Britain. The residents — so-called property guardians — pay a fixed monthly “license fee,” which is usually much lower than the typical rent in the same area.
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Applications to become guardians are going “through the roof,” with more people in their late thirties and forties signing on than in the past, said Arthur Duke, the founder and managing director of Live-in Guardians.
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Anonymous

Kevinmow

15 Jun 2025 - 09:17 am

President Donald Trump wants to bring back American manufacturing in ways that would reshape the United States economy to look more like China’s. The campaign, which has led to a rapidly escalating trade war with China, has given ample social media fodder to Chinese and American observers alike.
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Announcing a series of sweeping tariffs in a move dubbed “Liberation Day,” Trump said last week that it will lead factories to move production back to American shores, boosting the U.S. economy after “foreign leaders have stolen our jobs, foreign cheaters have ransacked our factories, and foreign scavengers have torn apart our once beautiful American dream.”
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In a Truth Social post Wednesday, Trump announced that he is raising tariffs on goods imported from China to 125%, up from the 104% that took effect the same day, due to “the lack of respect that China has shown to the World’s Markets.” Higher targeted tariffs on other countries have been paused for 90 days, although the 10% baseline tariff will remain in place for all countries.
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Meme-makers and Chinese government officials have in recent days begun pointing out the irony of Trump’s tariff-driven manufacturing pivot through AI-generated satire and political cartoons that have percolated online, with many American users boosting the jokes.
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Anonymous

Ronnieber

15 Jun 2025 - 07:17 am

Elon Musk stood next to President Donald Trump in the Oval Office on Friday, but the physical proximity belied a growing philosophical divide between two of the world's most powerful men, resulting in the tech mogul's abrupt announcement that he is departing Washington — without having achieved his goal of decimating the federal government.
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Trump took a more charitable view of Musk's tenure during a sprawling news conference in which he also declined to rule out pardoning Sean "Diddy" Combs, who is on trial on charges of sex trafficking and other alleged crimes; said he dislikes "the concept" of former first lady Jill Biden being forced to testify before Congress about her husband's mental fitness; and predicted again that Iran is on the cusp of making a deal that would suspend its pursuit of nuclear weapons.
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In a battle of plutocrats against populists, Bannon, a longtime advocate for reducing the size and scope of government, found Musk's methods and policy preferences to be sharply at odds with those of the MAGA movement. So, ultimately, did Musk, who broke with Trump repeatedly on agenda items as narrow as limiting visas for foreign workers and as broad as Trump's signature "big beautiful" budget bill — which Musk belittled for threatening to add trillions of dollars to the national debt.

“I was, like, disappointed to see the massive spending bill, frankly, which increases the budget deficit, not just decrease it, and undermines the work that the DOGE team is doing," Musk said in an interview with CBS' "Sunday Morning," which will air this weekend.
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"I love the gold on the ceiling," he said.

Musk has argued that inertia throttled his efforts to reduce government spending — a conclusion that raises questions about whether he was naive about the challenge of the mission he undertook.

“The federal bureaucracy situation is much worse than I realized,” he told The Washington Post this week. “I thought there were problems, but it sure is an uphill battle trying to improve things in D.C., to say the least.”

On Friday, he drew an implicit parallel between American government and the Nazi regime that committed a genocide, invoking the "banality of evil" that Hannah Arendt used to describe the atrocities in Germany.
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